A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
